Baltimore, MD - Mike Masco
ABC 2 NEWS
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The alarms are close to being activated across the Baltimore area as our snow drought potential increases as we move through the month of January. While November was a very chilly month for Baltimore, December provided a warm blast with temperatures running well above their monthly normal values. This has hurt my winter outlook in respect to our normal monthly snow being missed by 4+ inches! We recorded a whopping 1" of snow for the entire month while some outside the metro received more!
I decided to investigate all the seasonal snow totals that featured a lackluster start to their respective winters. Below you will find my raw data starting from 1950 - Today. I believe that data prior to 1950 has many flaws in it so I essentially threw it out!
Remember ! This is just a quick research project ---NOT fully scientific. Obviously there are many, MANY variables that influence a winter overall.
My research took the state of the pacific ( El Nino, La Nina , and Neutral conditions) and the state of the North Atlantic oscillation and compared them to what best represents our winter so far. Using the snow data we have so far for totals in the month of November to December ( 0-1" total) and compared it to years that featured 0-2" since 1950 I gained mixed results. There are three outcomes we could see.
1. ASSUMING WE STAY ON A NEUTRAL- NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION WITH NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC:
TOTAL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR WOULD AVERAGE: 15"
2. ASSUMING WE STAY ON A NEGATIVE PHASE WITH NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS
TOTAL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR WOULD AVERAGE: 24" ON AVERAGE
3. ASSUMING WE STAY ON A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NAO WITH NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS
TOTAL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR WOULD AVERAGE: 5.9"
HERE IS MY RAW DATA THAT I WORKED WITH. THE BOLDED YEARS SHOW THE BEST MATCH OF THE NAO/ENSO/SNOW DATA SO FAR W / NOTATION
Using the 0-1" of snow falling between NOV & DEC at BWI!
YEAR TOTAL SNOW ENSO STATE OF NORTH ATLANTIC OCILLATION
1950-1951 6.2" NEUTRAL NEG NAO ( WENT NEG - POS)
54-55 10.1" LA NINA
56-57 15.4" LA NINA
58-59 4.0" NEUTRAL -NAO * NAO (REMAINED NEUTRAL REST OF WINTER)
59-60 34.1" NEUTRAL -NAO *NAO WENT DEEPLY NEGATIVE REST OF WINTER
64-65 18.6" LA NINA
65-66 32.8" EL NINO
72-73 1.2" SUPER EL NINO
74-75 12.2" LA NINA
77-78 34.3 EL NINO
79-80 14.6" NEUTRAL NEG NAO STAYED NEUTRAL
80-81 4.6" NEUTRAL NEG NAO STAYED FAIRLY POSITIVE
83-84 14.5" LA NINA
84-85 10.3" LA NINA
86-87 35.2" EL NINO
88-89 8.3" LA NINA
91-92 4.1" SUPER EL NINO
94-95 8.2" EL NINO
96-97 15.3" NEUTRAL NEG NAO (NEGATIVE DECEMBER - NEUTRAL FINISH)
97-98 3.2" SUPER EL NINO
99-00 26.1 SUPER LA NINA
00-01 8.7" LA NINA
08-09 9.1" LA NINA - NEUTRAL (NAO NEUTRAL)
10-11 14.4" SUPER LA NINA