BALTIMORE - Mike Masco
ABC 2 Meteorologist
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The overall jury is still out in regards to what the exact impacts will be felt from a developing coastal storm during the week of Thanksgiving. The pattern will feature a trough over the east coast going into next week with a storm developing over the North Carolina coastline.
The models see a storm becoming massive and slow moving through next week bringing in an easterly wind for days.
This will do several things. First, the coastline. The push of easterly winds will enhance the rush of water along the NJ, DE, MD beach front adding to the already severe beach erosion we saw from Sandy and the recent nor'easter. Communities along the Chesapeake bay will experience moderate bay flooding from Annapolis to Havre De Grace. Second the chance for rain over a three day period will exists (mostly for the eastern shore). Third it will create raw feeling conditions through Thanksgiving.
The track will depend on the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation. I have noticed a dip in the index to negative values which would essentially bring a closer to the coast tracking low. This would be the worst case scenario as more rain would enter the equation. POTENTIALLY SNOW as well!
The GFS model shows this push of winds from the coast in response to a strong pressure gradient between a blocking high over SE Canada and low pressure over the North Carolina coastline.
The European model has a similar setup only a STRONGER storm (still east) However, the combination between the pressure gradient and strong pressure of the storm will bring winds to gale force into Baltimore, DC, and Philadelphia. Coastal sections of De, MD, NJ, NY, RI, MA, ME will see tropical storm force wind gusts or greater!
The developing negative north Atlantic oscillation will have a lot to do with the overall forecast ahead. A stronger negative pattern into next week will favor the European model's solution (seen above) with a more western jog to it! A weaker more positive NAO will keep the system on a GFS heading more out to sea.