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It's hard to believe by the start of Spring in March of 2012 we had already seen a handful of 80 degree days! Last march our average afternoon high temperature for the entire month was 53.7 degrees a whopping 10.1 degrees ABOVE normal! On March 20 th 2012 (first day of spring last year) it hit 72 degrees and then 81 degrees a few days later.
This year it's a whole different song and a dance!
While we continue to get close to tying the snow and cold together the players needed to achieve that fall a part and it's either too "warm" to snow or it's cold and no storms exist.
The pattern continues to favor below average temperatures and threat for a wintry mix over the next 8-10 days. If you look at a side by side comparison of the GFS (American model) and the European ( Foreign model) both suggest a continuation to a block over Greenland. We know this by the orange and red coloring I circled in black. What this does is promoted high pressure or a block to the atmosphere and usually we see low pressure below that. Ideally we would like to see a reverse of this expected atmospheric set-up to promote high pressure over the east with the return of sunshine and MILD temperatures. That unfortunately does not want to happen (yet).
It's truly impressive to see the GFS and European models (our long range models) push the cold straight from Canada, with little fluctuations in warmth. Typically we see wild swings for a few weeks before we settle to pattern towards mild and average temperatures. With the atmospheric blocking in place we stay cold and basically lock it in for the next 2 weeks.
This week's GFS take on temperatures anomalies (departures from normals) GREEN = 5-7 BELOW average
Next weeks' GFS look at temperatures. The white you see over NC/VA is NOT normal but well below normal.
With the cold in play we look to our models to give us a broad idea on whether we will turn stormy. The models show a broad area of above normal activity for storms ( mostly area's of low pressure bringing rain & snow to areas from OHIO to New England).
One must wonder if winter will hold on right through the end of March and if more accumulating snow is on the way for some (or many) ..