Sandy's threat to the Mid Atlantic

Tropical Storm Sandy needs to be watched closely

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Tropical storm Sandy continues to get better organized this morning over the Caribbean. The 11 am advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows Sandy's winds have increased to 50 mph, pressure has fallen, and the forward motion has increased to the north-north east, slightly.


INTERACT | Track the storm


Over the next 72 hours Sandy is expected to move over Jamaica bringing devastating rains to Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and eventually the Bahamas!

The 64,000 dollar question then becomes: Where does she go from there?

Since late last week our long range computer forecast models indicated Sandy could eventually become a big headache for the East coast. Various solutions have come out since then and consistency remains between a few taking a direct hit on the Mid Atlantic to one staying way off shore.

So let's look at the two track scenarios !

Scenario 1 "The Epic Track"

Scenario 1 would rewrite a few history books to account for the massive coastal flooding, wind, flooding, and inland snow it would produce.

In this track "Sandy" would become a Cat 1/Cat 2 hurricane moving north of the Bahamas. At the same time a trough of low pressure will dig into the East allowing for "Sandy" to move north and eventually west into the Mid Atlantic.

The solution is plausible because it has support from our two fairly trusted long range computer models; The European and The Canadian models. If you remember back in August, The Republican National Convention was delayed because officials feared Isaac would hit Tampa. The only model that went out on a limb saying it would miss Tampa and move toward New Orleans was THE EUROPEAN! The end result was just that! So as you can see this is a model that has a pretty good handle on the weather! Personally, I have always trusted it BUT from time to time it has thrown us a few curve balls.

HERE IS WHAT THE MODELS SHOW

CANADIAN MODEL MONDAY NIGHT

EUROPEAN MODEL TUESDAY (MASSIVE SNOWS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND)

SHOWN ON ABC 2 NEWS AT 11 PM MONDAY NIGHT