October Thoughts & Beyond

Swings In October To Be Expected

MIKE MASCO

ABC 2 BALTIMORE

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What an October it has been! Hundreds of morning low records have been broken across the country as temperatures ranged between 15 to 20 degrees below average during the day and 20-35 degrees below average at night. The first frost and freeze of the season occurred in Maryland over this weekend while Deep Creek, MD saw its first snow flurries of the season the first week of October!

Check out the temperature departures for this months so far!!

GREEN= 20 BELOW NORMAL

 

The main question : Will we stay cold?

North Atlantic/ Arctic Oscillation

In order to answer that question you must consider what is going on and where we will be heading. If you look primarily at the north Atlantic oscillation you would see a bounce to positive levels which supports a trough over Greenland and a ridge over the east coast (favoring warmth for many) !

On The flip side the AO (arctic oscillation) has remained very negative which could easily pull the NAO more negative as well! This means the cold air is not too far away and can be tapped into.

The forecast for the Arctic Oscillation is to remain negative, which supports cold air pouring into the east.

THE PACIFIC

A variable that we watch that is often mentioned is the PNA or Pacific North America Index. The PNA also works in both positive and negative phases. From late September to now the PNA has been positive indicating strong blocking in the form of a powerful ridge has setup over California. Signals now point to a relaxation of that as a trough moves over the west and a ridge sets up in the east. A pattern like that is a negative PNA which supports warmth over the east!

The Next 5 Day's

The next 5 days overall will support average to slightly above average temperatures over the east. I say this because of a few strong storms developing over the plains states funneling a southwest wind into the eastern seaboard.

IMAGE: GFS TEMPERATURES FROM NORMAL 0-5 DAYS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PITFALLS

I will say looking at the 8-10 ensembles is not an easy thing to do. I see where we can get the warm air BUT the signals to that are NOT strong at all. In fact I buy around 20% of what I am seeing from the European Model and maybe 30% of what the GFS is selling.

The European supports a full positive NAO with a ridge popped up over Maine. The ensembles and state of the Arctic Oscillation does not support that at all and if you look at the GFS you see a more east based negative NAO trying to situate itself.

The monstrous ridge over Alaska will be the make or break to this forecast. Should the ridge expand out more, those negative heights you see over the pacific NW will be over the lakes faster than you can blink! Meaning cold air will do a massive shift east!!!

What could be a game changer to cold?

A Typhoon?

Yes! In the fall, we see plenty of help from recurving typhoons. Such was the case in late September! There is one Typhoon and a tropical storm in the western pacific Maria and Prapiroon. Should both recurve and create a strong enough trough over the central pacific this will expand the ridge to the west coast and push a trough towards the east. The problem with this is it may not be strong enough to do such a task.

MY TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOW - OCTOBER 30TH

 PRECIPITATION FORECAST NOW - OCTOBER 30TH

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