Massive Pattern Change After The Warmth

80s are back but for a short time!

Baltimore, MD - Mike Masco


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I am somewhat shocked to see how quick the pattern will flip going into the first week of October. Most long range models pointed to at least a week and half to two weeks of above average temperatures while the cool would fill back in by the mid month. Well, that looks to fail! A recharge of super cool air over northern Canada looks to sweep down by Sunday bringing daytime highs over the east into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

The Warmth This Week Will Bring 80 degree temps!

This week will be dominated by warm temperatures as a strong gulf of Mexico low will overspread the Tennessee valley. This will send warm air up the eastern seaboard bringing the potential for strong storms from Atlanta to Baltimore. The low will pump the ridge (area around the big H) allowing for a southern wind to develop. As we know, southerly winds deliver warm weather and that will be the case Tues, Wed, Thur, and Fri. Temperatures will make a run for 80-85 in Baltimore and DC while Philadelphia will come close to 80 over Wed, Thur, and Fri!

*Image: Forecast highs from the WRF model for Wednesday afternoon. NOTE 85's over central Maryland & Central PA!


The Canadian Cool Down

In the above image note the cold air north of Montana. This vigorous trough we call it in the weather world will punch in the cold by the tail end of the weekend. Saturday will be the transition day while Sunday night will have the first full taste of it. Sunday could be the first freeze for Western Maryland , PA, WV, and OH while frost could be an issue for the major cities. There are a couple of models that delay the cold until Monday night.

The GFS has Frederick Maryland hitting 44 Saturday night and 40 Sunday Night while Baltimore is a few degrees higher than that. The daytime temperature on Monday will reach 63 which is 10 degrees BELOW average!

First Flakes of The Season?

A harder forecast to nail down is the potential for a few flakes to fly over the high elevation areas. The GFS says a dusting is possible Saturday night into Sunday over Western Maryland and West Virgina as the cold air and strong dynamics move through.

IMAGE IS FROM THE GFS MODEL 6z Saturday Night. Dark blue = 2"

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