March continues "Cold"

Forecast models show cooler then normal

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It's hard to believe that last March we had 15 out of 31 days with temperatures above 65 degrees with several 80 degree days mixed in. So far March is off to a below average start for parts of the state and in Baltimore is .1 degrees above normal which is basically saying we are just about average.

If you look across the globe you notice much of the USA is cold and most of Europe and Asia is VERY COLD!

 

The reason behind this cold is our two main indicators we use to forecast temperature trends across the globe remain on the negative side. The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation along with the AO or Arctic Oscillation show negative values indicating atmospheric processes are going on producing cold over much of the Northern Hemisphere. At this time last year we were in a completely different pattern. Both atmospheric indicators were positive, locking all the cold air over the arctic and preventing it from coming south.

If you look at the parameters below you will note that they plunge further negative going into this month which means a sustained "cool" period is to be expected. There are a few indications a "bounce" may occur by later this month going into April.

Our long range model from WXBELL.COM (CFS V2) shows a sustained cold pattern remaining through the last week of March. Brutal cold air shows up on this model over the northern plains. Should this model be correct, we will end this month around 1 degree below normal for the month. This would mean while our average high by March 25 is 57 degrees at BWI ( we will struggle to get into the lower 50s).

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CFS V2 FROM TODAY - MARCH30 TH