Long Ranger: Warm start to a chilly trend in October

October will kick off warm, gradually cooling!

BALTIMORE - Mike Masco


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As previously mentioned in my October forecast, I felt October (at least the first two weeks) had a chance of being mild with above normal temperatures. The latest 12z GFS vs EURO 8-10 forecasts have come back noting just that.

A few things stand out and that is the monstrous ridge developing over Alaska! Quite different than last year! Ideally, you would want that further east (over California) to develop a trough over the eastern US however, with the NAO bouncing back to neutral to near positive conditions the opposite is expected.

The strength of the ridge over Alaska will be key to the type of ridge that will develop over the east coast. The European model suggest a very strong ridge over Alaska which in response develops a  subtropical ridge  over the east coast (WARMER TEMPS I 95 CITIES) while the GFS is tame and keeps a progressive cool vs warm pattern over the east coast.

What we are seeing right now is the pattern recharging itself after running below normal for the last couple of weeks. It's important to remember this first recharge as we move into winter since it will be a clue to when active, stormy conditions will prevail.

The EUROPEAN and GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM both show the NAO trending positive over the next week or two before more blocking will come back into the picture as shown from the EUROPEAN, Canadian, and America models. It is at this time the fall chill will come back into play.

Going back to the 8-10 day forecast, I will be curious to see how strong or (weak) the ridge becomes over the sea of Okhotsky given typhoon EWINIAR and JELAWAT will influence that area in the next 5 day period causing a breakdown of that ridge?

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