Long Ranger: Threat For Snow To Close November?

Pattern Could Support A Snowstorm In The Future

Mike Masco

ABC BALTIMORE WEATHER CENTER

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If you read my Sunday night post you can see I am setting the scenario for what will eventually be a snowy situation as we segue into December. A few things to note in this blog posting. First, both the GFS and European forecast models show the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) tanking to negative levels. When that happens the threat for cold and snow increase exponentially!

A look at the 6-10 day forecast from today shows us that a deep trough will setup over the east coast. This means a rush of cold air will come down from central Canada reaching the east coast by next week. High latitude blocking (denoted in red) over Greenland will allow the storm track to run up the east coast. Essentially any storm that moves across the USA will get hung up off the North Carolina coastline. There are only two tracks that can exists. If the NAO is negative the track would come right up the east coast. However, if we have a neutral situation the track would bring a storm off shore missing the I 95 cities.

Given the pattern we see setting up, I am confident at least 1 storm in the next 8-10 days will produce snow for someone along the east coast.

STORM THREAT

TARGET DATES: NOV 28 - 30TH AND DEC 5-10TH

The European Model. Last nights run had a storm just off the Maryland coastline Nov 28 producing snow.

The new afternoon run has it over NY,PA, and MD. It's not important the exact location of the storm RIGHTNOW it's important to note that it sees a storm in this pattern.

 

The GFS ALSO sees a storm on the 28th. A rain changing to snow situation but again we are not concerned with the fine details!