JAMSTEC Model says cold & snowy Winter ahead

Cold & Snowy times ahead per model

BALTIMORE - Mike Masco, LIKE ME ON FACEBOOK: CLICK HERE

I guess the first question to answer is what is a JAMSTEC !? JAMSTEC stands for: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology ( JAMSTEC ). It's a government organization in Japan with their own forecast models and long range predictions. It's NOAA in Japan but with very powerful super computers!

In the winter of 2011-2012 the JAMSTEC predicted a very warm USA during the December, January, and February time frame.

FORECAST FROM OCTOBER 2011 FOR DJF 2011/2012

THE OUTCOME OF THE WINTER OF 2011-2012 (TEMPERATURES FROM NORMAL)

WHO COULD FORGET THAT SNOWLESS WARM WINTER..NOT THAT ANYONE IS COMPLAINING? RIGHT?

 

Their new October forecast has come out for this years upcoming winter and it shows some interesting things.

A look at the predicted sea surface temperatures reveals warming over the central pacific and indicates a centrally based El Nino, with cooler waters closer to South America. My historical weather data indicates that is a favorable scenario for colder, wetter, conditions from the Mississippi river on east.

Note, the warming over the pacific waters. This indicates a warmer PDO which is opposite of last year that featured a VERY cold PDO causing warm air over the eastern seaboard.

Lastly, a look at the northern Atlantic waters. While it shows cold (which is not what you want if you like to see a negative NAO) warm waters sit just west of that region which tells me a west based negative NAO is favored. This may and will change numerous times BUT the signals over the pacific look good!

 

In terms of air temperatures MUCH of the nation is cold through the winter. If you at the extreme eastern seaboard you find warmer than normal temperatures. My theory on that is the model sees ABOVE normal precip over DFJ which naturally boosts temperatures to around the average nighttime lows. So the arctic air under dry conditions will cool more rapidly while the wetter arctic/Canadian air will cool less quickly.

Secondly, it is taking into consideration the VERY warm water temperatures from this year. I will agree on that point (areas east of I 95) may have a problem getting heavy snow until late in the season!

Now, If this model were suggesting the dreaded south east ridge then you would have WARMER than normal temperatures right back into Ohio (which is not the case).

Here's a look at precipitation overall for DJF

 

More to come.......


 



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