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The last 10 days have been an interesting period to watch unfold from a meteorological standpoint. From rounds of cold and warmth to a big ocean storm, mom nature has certainly laid out her plan of an active pattern ahead.
I have mentioned that the time frame around Thanksgiving would be of interest as blocking would once again become established over Greenland, sending cold air back into the Eastern seaboard. In response to this we would push our storm track further to the south and await any storm that comes across our country to interact with the evolving pattern.
The Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe will be a period that could deliver the first taste of winter to many. BUT there are a few concerns. The questions I will need to answer over the next 24-36 hours are as followed:
1. How strong is this early week storm? A stronger storm means colder air to pull in (creating more snow)
2. Does this storm come in at night or during the day? November sun angle would keep ground temperatures warmer preventing any snow - ASIDE from high elevations (western MD , Central PA, NW NJ, ect)
3. The Track! While I think we have an idea this storm will track somewhere over DC .. There is a potential the track bumps north given the flat look to the trough over the east.
The one model that has "trended" towards a cold and snowy solution and maintained that very thought has been the GFS model! If you remember , the GFS model did poorly with Sandy and overall has not had a great track record! While I do not believe in taking one forecast model as gospel, I do look for a model that maintains consistency, and the GFS has certainly proved itself well!
Here's what it shows.
Tuesday night a strung out area of low pressure will develop south of DC. It will quickly intensify as it moves offshore.
The 12z GFS snow totals
The European and Canadian model that I look at for "support" to back up the GFS has trended also colder and snowier.
The 12 Z European Model.
NOT OUT YET........
THE 12 Z CMC (CANADIAN) southern solution with a weak 1016 MB low. Cold air on the north side. Most snow NW of Baltimore City
Canadian model totals. Dark Blue = 2-4" Ligher Blue= 6"+
So here are my initial thoughts. Given climatology and my experience dealing with southern sliders (southern storms moving off the coast and intensifying). Here is what I think could unfold.
-The I 95 cities from Baltimore City to NYC will see a rain snow mix.
-Colder air and a nightfall storm would bring in a slushy couple of inches.
-20 miles inland towards the north and west, the totals will rise.
-Area's such as Reisterstown, Monkton, White Hall, Jarrettsville would see more
-Highest amounts would be closest to the MD/PA line Union Bridge, Manchester, Parker Conservation Area, and Exit 33 on I 83 towards PA line.
-The most snow I see this system producing is 6" over the highest amount areas I listed. A few inches south east of that, and Baltimore City is in question. I do not see much IF ANYTHING from Baltimore City on south and east.
-Again, this is just a rough idea I am typing out loud to you. Lets see what happens over the next 24-36 hours. By Sunday at 6:30 on ABC 2 News I should have a pretty good idea.