BALTIMORE - Mike Masco
ABC 2 NEWS BALTIMORE
Show me some love on Facebook: Click Like: HERE
It's truly hard to believe we are already entering the first month of meteorological winter (December - March). The long range models continue to hint at a brutally cold December stretched out from Chicago to Baltimore/DC! If you had read and watched my winter outlook I specified we would see the coldest month being December with the second being early to mid January.
A climate model that the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration runs is FINALLY jumping on that idea showing a BLAST of fresh arctic air moving through the northern tier of the nation
If correct, we would have a December to remember for massive cold and the potential of snow for every city east of the Mississippi River.
I think the CFS model has the correct idea with the core of the BELOW AVERAGE temps over Michigan, Ohio, and Interior New England.
The GFS model is already catching on to a few key things. First, the pacific continue to break down the COLD PDO with warmer temperatures being found over the NE Pacific waters south of Alaska. The GFS is finding heights building in the west which is usually a signal of a POSITIVE PNA setup. In a positive PNA we find cold in the east with warm over the west; an ideal settup for MAJOR COLD! The second noteworthy thing I see is the amount of low pressure being seen over the Gulf coast states. This tells me that storms could be forming over the subtropical jet. If that remains the case our first snow could come by mid December over the east coast. More on that later!
I will leave you with this graph. Below is the GFS forecast for the Arctic Oscillation. Remember, if you want cold and potential snow you want to see levels dip negative. Right now we are in a positive phase (you notice that with our temperatures flirting with 60's thanksgiving week). The GFS and EUROPEAN model both take the Arctic Ocillation to MAJOR cold levels by early December! Some members of the model takes it to near historic levels, similar to what we saw in 2009/2010.