This storm will be stronger, but have less snow. This is because there is less moisture coming into the system, but the pressure drop will be incredible.
When a storm develops fast, a drop of 1 mb per hour or 24mb in 1 day is considered a 'bomb'. This storm may drop as much as 35 mb according to a chat I had with the great Paul Kocin (formerly on the Weather Channel) last night.
See some of the computer model maps in the slide show. That should make for widespread blizzard conditions... so expect warnings to go up tonight or tomorrow for much of Wednesday.
VIEW SLIDESHOW | February 2010 Blizzard
Besides the heavy snow and wind, there is the threat of sleet closer to home. The rain snow line will shift farther north tonight than the last storm. This could include Annapolis, Aberdeen(just along the Bay), and Kent County on the Eastern Shore.
It will go back to all snow statewide on Wednesday. However any mix or rain will add to the weight on roof tops and trees. This will result in more damage and power outages.
The wind has prompted Gale Warnings along the Chesapeake, and the wind direction will push flooding water along the shore facing east as well.
With that in mind, here is my snow map. I have extended the 12"+ snow band to include Baltimore, Howard, and Carroll Counties.
Rain and mix will cut down totals in the mid Eastern Shore...but ice will be a problem there. As for the 20"+, that accounts for thunder snow to drop some heavy bursts of 3"+ per hour rates.
On average though, the moisture for this storm is less than the last storm. Here are the totals from four models overnight in liquid form:
- NAM: 1.20"
- GFS: 1.40"
- MRF: 1.44"
- WRF: 1.37"
The average is 1.35" which would translate to 13-14 inches of snow. considering the potential burst of snow with thunder and lighting, and the wide range we had with the last storm's reports Anywhere over 12 inches to over 20 inches and much higher snow drifts will be measured.
