Using Historical Data To Determine 2013's Winter Outcome

Baltimore, MD - Mike Masco

ABC 2 NEWS

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The alarms are close to being activated across the Baltimore area as our snow drought potential increases as we move through the month of January. While November was a very chilly month for Baltimore, December provided a warm blast with temperatures running well above their monthly normal values. This has hurt my winter outlook in respect to our normal monthly snow being missed by 4+ inches! We recorded a whopping 1" of snow for the entire month while some outside the metro received more!

I decided to investigate all the seasonal snow totals that featured a lackluster start to their respective winters. Below you will find my raw data starting from 1950 - Today. I believe that data prior to 1950 has many flaws in it so I essentially threw it out!

Remember ! This is just a quick research project ---NOT fully scientific. Obviously there are many, MANY variables that influence a winter overall.

My research took the state of the pacific ( El Nino, La Nina , and Neutral conditions) and the state of the North Atlantic oscillation and compared them to what  best represents our winter so far. Using the snow data we have so far for totals in the month of November to December ( 0-1" total) and compared it to years that featured 0-2" since 1950 I gained mixed results. There are three outcomes we could see.

The outcomes:

1. ASSUMING WE STAY ON A NEUTRAL- NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION WITH NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC:

TOTAL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR WOULD AVERAGE: 15"

2. ASSUMING WE STAY ON A NEGATIVE PHASE WITH NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS

TOTAL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR WOULD AVERAGE: 24" ON AVERAGE

3. ASSUMING WE STAY ON A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NAO WITH NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS

TOTAL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR WOULD AVERAGE: 5.9"

HERE IS MY RAW DATA THAT I WORKED WITH. THE BOLDED YEARS SHOW THE BEST MATCH OF THE NAO/ENSO/SNOW DATA SO FAR W / NOTATION

Using the 0-1" of snow falling between NOV & DEC at BWI!

YEAR           TOTAL SNOW     ENSO       STATE OF NORTH ATLANTIC OCILLATION

1950-1951    6.2"               NEUTRAL          NEG NAO ( WENT NEG - POS)

54-55          10.1"                 LA NINA  

56-57          15.4"                  LA NINA

58-59           4.0"                NEUTRAL       -NAO * NAO (REMAINED NEUTRAL REST OF WINTER)

59-60          34.1"            NEUTRAL        -NAO *NAO WENT DEEPLY NEGATIVE REST OF WINTER

64-65          18.6"            LA NINA

65-66           32.8"          EL NINO

72-73            1.2"          SUPER EL NINO

74-75           12.2"         LA NINA

77-78            34.3           EL NINO

79-80           14.6"           NEUTRAL           NEG NAO STAYED NEUTRAL

80-81            4.6"             NEUTRAL             NEG NAO STAYED FAIRLY POSITIVE

83-84           14.5"            LA NINA

84-85           10.3"            LA NINA

86-87           35.2"            EL NINO

88-89            8.3"              LA NINA

91-92            4.1"             SUPER EL NINO

94-95           8.2"            EL NINO

96-97          15.3"          NEUTRAL             NEG NAO (NEGATIVE DECEMBER - NEUTRAL FINISH)

97-98           3.2"            SUPER EL NINO

99-00           26.1           SUPER LA NINA

00-01           8.7"           LA NINA

08-09          9.1"           LA NINA -                    NEUTRAL  (NAO NEUTRAL)

10-11         14.4"          SUPER LA NINA