The Warm Trend Will Be Our Friend

Baltimore, MD - Mike Masco

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We are expecting yet another pattern change to take over Maryland as we go into next week. As I have said all along, the pacific and west coast weather pattern has a profound influence over the type of weather we see on the East coast. When it's sunny and warm on the west coast usually we are cold and snowy here.

The pattern producing the frigid overnight temperatures and chilly afternoons this week will slowly retreat towards Canada as we round out Sunday. Early next week ABC 2 expects temperatures to be back into the lower 40s which is more typical to slightly above average for the state.

The upper level 500 millibar map shows the general position of the jet stream. REMEMBER a jet stream to our north will bring in the warm! Corny, YES! But a good trick to remember when you listen to the forecasts.

Note the huge trough over the west coast. The trough will send a low level jet up the eastern seaboard which will warm up areas east of the mountains from Charlotte to Hartford.

Temperatures from normal are expected to range between 5-10 degrees over the next several days as a storm over the Ohio Valley will enhance the warming.

The GFS X MOS model which forecasts high and low temperatures show middle to upper 40s to start next week with upper 50s to near 60 by mid week. We look to stay into the 50s as we go into next weekend!

Will it last?

The answer is no. Dramatic changes in the grand pattern will support a blast of cold air right back into the east as we head into the middle to January. The combination of a favorable pacific pattern, NAO/AO, and rare stratospheric warming event will combine to bring temperatures back to winter levels. I will blog about that tomorrow!

Cheers.

Mike