Baltimore, MD - Mike Masco
ABC 2 BALTIMORE
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If you like the summer warmth then you will sure like the forecast plan going into the next five days! Strong high pressure will bring on a southerly wind ushering in near 80 degree temperatures for much of the Mid Atlantic. The pattern however, will change going into next week as an arctic front will knock temperatures down into the upper 40s to around 50 the week of Halloween.
Here is a look at temperatures by the midweek. These are departures from normal. Baltimore's normal high temperature for this point in the month is 65 degrees, we are forecasting 75-80 degrees. 10 to 25 degree above normal temperatures will exists from the Midwest to Maryland!
IMAGE: AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS FROM NORMAL
Trouble Brewing in the Tropics?
As we warm up the tropics will begin to heat up. For the last several days a weak area of low pressure with thunderstorm development has formed south of Hispanola. This activity has gotten better organized over the last 24 hours and the National Hurricane Center has put out a 75% likelihood for further development.
Should this storm form, it would take on the name "Sandy" our 18th named system for the 2012 hurricane season. Hurricane hunters will be inside this system Monday afternoon to determine whether this has become better organized.
Where does it go from there?
Our forecast models here at Channel 2 have been fairly consistent on "Sandy" moving north in the next 72 hours (Thursday) as a strong cold front pushes through the Ohio valley by Friday night. The flow out ahead of this cold front is due south to north which will steer "Sandy" north.
Typically when we have strong cold fronts they deflect tropical systems and send them on their way out-to-sea! USUALLY! BUT not always. Such was the case with "Irene" last year!
Our trusted forecast model "The European" has continued to hint as a phase (joining together) between "Sandy" and the cold front moving east. Should this happen the jet stream will lift "Sandy" North and then West, bringing it dangerously close if not into Maryland, NJ, DE, and VA.
The solutions vary between the most extreme case (European 12z model run) bringing the storm up the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay; to a strong hybrid storm sitting 40 miles east of Ocean City, MD and Atlantic City, NJ.
Either way, the solutions DO NOT show a storm moving out to sea missing the lower 48. Could that change? Yes! However, climatology (previous storms this time of year in the past) favor an impact from it over a complete out to sea track.
What do the models show?
The European is the worst case scenario model. By Sunday of next week it brings "Sandy" north and into the Chesapeake. As this is happening "Sandy" goes through an identity crisis morphing into a hybrid tropical system/ intense Nor'easter. Snow would fill in over West Virginia with pounding surf from Hatteras NC to Sandy Hook, NJ. Coastal flooding, flooding, and wind will be an issue for millions of people and power loss will be in the tens of millions. NOW! That could change! Variations of that scenario can and will happen. BUT that's what it shows right now
The GFS, Global Forecast System, our American model has a similar north track however half phases the system keeping it close to the coast. The wind field expands greatly Sunday with tropical storm force winds along the immediate coast. The 18z GFS (NEW RUN) now has a separate low forming right over Maryland, I do believe it is an error on the model (feedback we call it) .
The Canadian Model (CMC) has a similar look but a late phase. Meaning the storm comes in near NYC and CT. Note the 996 low over the Ohio valley. That will capture the storm and force it west!
The models will do a lot of changing over the next several days and I will continue to post updates as to what they show.
My ideal track will be a middle ground solution to the GFS and Euro. While I do feel the European is on to something in that it phases the system completely, I would like to see the trough deeper on future runs. Should the trough sharpen even further we could have an Isabel type track with a greater wind field.
My idea supports snow for western Maryland given the temperatures crashing into Monday (should the European solution) pan out. Right now is is just TOO early to make a definite call. I do however, feel this is not an out-to-sea track!
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