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The overnight forecast models have continued a shift more towards the south favoring sandy to move more towards the south west.
The 5AM advisory from the National Hurricane center has shifted the track into Ocean City, Maryland moving right through Baltimore.
Here is a look at various models from the overnight.
GFDL (RUN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER/NOAA)
The GFDL model shows a landfall over southern Maryland moving towards the west-north- west. A path shown here would take the storm over Baltimore and Washington DC bringing sustained winds of 39 mph or greater with gusts over 60 mph! This would also bring severe rain and massive power outages.
The GFS (GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL) shows a landfall over Sandy Hook, NJ, which is now the furthest north track being shown on a models. Keep in mind this has done a terrible job and should not be trusted at the moment. The model then drifts the storm SW bringing strong winds (25-30 mph sustained) to Maryland. Near hurricane force winds expected for NJ shore.
The European model which has continued to lock in the idea of a landfall from Delaware Bay to Ocean City, MD brings Sandy in Monday as a strong storm! Winds to 40 mph sustained gusting to 65 along the coast! Massive rainfall between 4-8" and inland snow ranging between 8-12".
The Bottom Line
Sandy will become a damaging storm regardless of the track. You should begin to make preparations for this event today!
The track of the storm will bring a HIGH IMPACT EVENT between Ocean City, MD to Newark, DE, northwest into Baltimore and much of Maryland.
WIND EXPECTATIONS: 35-45MPH GUSTING TO 60 AT TIMES
RAIN EXPECTATIONS: 2-8"
ARRIVAL TIME: SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SNOW EVENT EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND: 6-12"
This will be a long duration event with several days of gusty winds and heavy rains. Should the track come right through Baltimore (advertised by the National Hurricane Center) you can expect the high end of the numbers I listed above.
We get a brand new model run later this afternoon that I will update when I get it. Be sure to stay tuned to ABC 2 NEWS at 5, 6, and 11 PM. Wyatt and I will break down the latest.
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