Baltimore - Mike Masco
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Friday will mark the official start to Meteorological Spring, which runs from March - June. Next month our days will grow longer and our sun angle will becoming higher thus making it harder for storms to produce snow. While most are rooting on spring to come the models say not so fast! The pattern going into the next couple of weeks continue to suggest below normal temperatures ahead. The combination of a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and positive PNA (Pacific North America Oscillation) favor a cold pattern over the east.
When we see a positive and negative PNA/NAO we typically find a few big storms along the east coast. The problem so far has been tying the cold air to the storms thus producing our big storms.
The cold air continues to show up in both our European and GFS global models. Below, shows temperature departures from normal.
The European model 16 day forecast from Feb 26 shows temperatures running 5-10 degrees below average through the first 8 days in March.
The GFS is also in-line with this idea and then some! This shows and extension of the cold through March 14 th with a few days around average!
Our climate model from NOAA The CFS V 2 which gives us monthly predictions show a continuation of the cold over the entire month. Temperatures expected to run BELOW average. The GREEN shows temperatures running 3-7 degrees BELOW average which is significant for a monthly reading.
Finally, how much liquid will fall? Not only do the models suggest cold but a large amount of them suggest a wet March ahead. The image below is from the CFS V2. The dark reds are 3-4" average rain for the entire month. JACKPOT amounts are found over the interior South East.
The bottom line is we will remain cold going into March. Temperatures will not sky rocket like we saw last year which increases the potential for a late season snowfall. Again, we have a very good pattern ahead however, our problem all year has been tying the cold air to the storms.
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