Holiday weekend storm still not etched in stone as snow chances linger for Baltimore

I watched the radar this morning and it looked much more impressive than I expected. There was more snow in the north and more rain in Texas.  I noticed the National Weather Service increased their snow forecast in the region based on this and it supported my thoughts that we don't have the full story on the storm.

The system in Texas is what is left from California. It was expected to dive south and get squashed by an upper level cold jet stream diving out of Canada.  This morning it was pushing more heavy rain into northern Texas and Oklahoma.

Rather than get too technical and detailed, I just wanted to show a comparison in the slide show and give an idea of what I am watching.  The snow in the north includes Illinois, Iowa, etc., will move east and perhaps dry out a little.  Still, it should reach us on Christmas Day. The air is dry, so it might show up on radar as virga, but flakes should fall in the form of flurries or light snow. A coating? Perhaps. I am optimistic.

As for Saturday night and Sunday morning... That is where the strong cold northern jet stream comes into play. It appears that it might dig farther south, which could pull the coastal storm closer to the coast. All it will take is a shift of 80 miles from the current track to make a big deal for us. Otherwise it jumps out to sea and just drops snow on the Lower Eastern Shore and beaches.

For that reason I placed a 40% chance of the storm impacting Baltimore on Sunday morning, while Salisbury and Ocean City are in a 2-4 inch PLUS range.  All is subject to change, but that is the best I have right now.  This would verify my mother in laws influence once again

Cold air and snow showers will linger on Monday with an unsettled atmosphere, but a warm up will develop next week.