Fall Feel Is On But For How Long?

Baltimore, MD - MIKE MASCO ABC 2 METEOROLOGIST

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A large area of high pressure has setup this week over the eastern third of the country ushering in drier cooler air from Canada. This area of high pressure will settle across the Mid Atlantic through much of the week keeping any high heat and humidity towards our west.

As we move into Sunday a storm will eject out of the Ohio Valley bringing a chance for showers and clouds.

THE LONG RANGER!

Back in August I put out a September forecast that reflected a pattern change towards cooler temperatures. I do believe we continue this trend towards "coolish" weather and that this first round of cooler days and crips nights will be the first of many to come!

Below is a look at the 8-10 day forecast. On the left is the superior EUROPEAN model while the right image is the GFS (American) model. A strong ridge is projected to setup over the west coast allowing for warmer temperatures over the pacific Northwest and Rockies. As we move east towards the East coast we see a trough digging out of Canada. This indicates that our main airflow will come out of Canada reinforcing cooler air from time to time. While I do anticipate prolonged cold blasts or below average temperatures, this change signifies our summer may officially be over!

The image below is from NOAA's CFS model which predicts average monthly mean departures for the entire month of September. Note the ABOVE average temperatures shift west while the east ranged between average to at some cases below average temperatures. If the trend continues we should balance out to AVERAGE for the remainder of the month.