Baltimore,MD - My madness found here: www.facebook.com/meteorologistmikemasco
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The pattern is anything but stable going into the next several weeks from now through Christmas. It always fascinates me how some SCREAM winter is over when the thermometer gets above 55 and in the rare cases hits above 70 such was the case December 3rd!
The reason behind the sudden warm up was thanks in part to the Pacific ocean and a pattern known as the Eastern Pacific Ocillation "EPO". Essentially it's the pattern that turns the west coast stormy and cold and that was certainly the case over the weekend. If you follow my facebook page you have seen me say how the pacific is very unstable and that pattern would be short-lived. Well, that looks to be the case.
The Game Changer
A storm due in this weekend will essentially become the game changer for the cold west coast / warm east coast setup. A strong storm will develop over the TN valley moving just west of Maryland. As this low intensifies it will send down super cold air on the back side of the storm.
To illustrate this look at this: First, the pacific is much different with a storm track shifting over British Columbia and a strong blocking ridge over the eastern Pacific. Second, the Ohio Valley cutter (storm) is sending a strong trough south bound allowing for the cold air bottled over central Canada to shoot south! Later this weekend we may very well have our first negative digit overnight reading in the northern plains with snow squalls! This will change cold air east as the storm dies off (occludes) and becomes a cutoff low.
The next 16 day height anomalies (atmospheric pressure) shows us storm after storm coming out of Canada and marching east. This will establish new waves of cold air from the Midwest to the east coast. I remain firm on my belief we end this month at least 1 if not 2 below normal for much of the northern tier to New England area!
Where's the beef? (SNOW)
Given this pattern setup I do feel one or two storms will make a run for the east coast. Blocking on top with a combo negative Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation means stormy and cold east. The pacific should behave as well from the next 16 days.
One storm has my eye! It's the late next week/weekend time frame! Should everything go to plan this weekend and early next week we would have cold air established with a storm track south of the Mid Atlantic.
More .. Later ! Remember to follow me on Facebook!
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