"A weatherman (or woman) can be wrong and still keep his job!" How many times have you heard that, or even said it? Well I am sure the saying has been much more popular today (Saturday) with the busted storm. Personally, I was sweating this forecast out all week.
My friend Charles Meyers at the National Aquarium had me on the hook for their plan today, and I know I let him down. This is my 13th year of forecasting on Baltimore TV, and this ranks among the hardest forecasts I have had to make.
This was a tough call, and I was clear about that on TV. However, with all of our advanced equipment, and a good forecasting record, some storms just don't work out. That doesn't make it any better, but I wanted to explain this a little.
We are only as good as our last forecast! We are proud to post our Weatherate logo on all of our weather maps. An independent company has followed all of the Baltimore TV forecasts and found ABC2 most accurate for the past 2 years.
We even did a very good job with the storms in December. But that was then and this is now. I know it. I get it. Many of you are angry. Me too!
You can be angry with any number of busted forecasts in for the area. No one got this right. I am angry that I was not more aggressive with the forecast. All week I was hinting at the storm, but on Thursday morning I accepted that perhaps the computer models were right and it would stay just south.
That was the one consistency: Most computer model forecasts had nothing for Baltimore... but I (along with Wyatt at night) was sure to keep the light snow in all week. Light snow is a lot different than the 4 -6 inches that will fall in the city. My forecast on Friday morning did have 1-3 south (in Anne Arundel County and the Eastern Shore).
I even talked about 5-10 inches for Salisbury and Ocean City, with a foot near Richmond Virginia. But that is not here. So what happened?
Basically, the storm was up against an arctic high pressure to the north. This air was so dry that the dew point this morning was near 0F. That means that an air temperature of 0 F was needed to saturate the air. Typically in this set up, snow would fall from the sky, be seen on radar, but most, if not all, of the flakes would dry up before reaching the ground. Virga!
The actual snowfall and moderate to heavy accumulation was expected to stay just south as this dry and very cold air mass prevented the storm from turning up the coast. I did show this on TV Friday morning... after 2-3 days into a storm's life cycle, it want's to turn northeast.
In normal circumstances, that would make moderate to heavy snow for Baltimore an easy call. But I went with the computers and played it conservatively. That was obviously wrong. The storm was stronger, and it was able to push a little farther north, making that turn in our direction and bringing the snow our way as well. Perhaps it got bit by the full moon, helping it make that turn north.
The computers are not perfect, but it was hard to buck the trend when so much was on the line. If I had to do it again, I am not sure I would have done anything different, other than explain the potential bust a little more.
A shift of just about 100 miles made all of the difference. That brought the heavy snow band from southern Maryland up to Baltimore. That kept southern Maryland in the heavy snow, just adding more to the total.
As for the northern areas, a few inches of snow is a lot more than just flurries or nothing. As of Saturday afternoon, that moderate snow made it as far north as Shrewbury in York County PA, while York itself just had flurries.
So assessing this forecast in each area, southern PA was still close to getting nothing. Southern Maryland and Virginia had a lot of snow. But for Baltimore, (and Washington DC's market) it was a major bust. This is a lot different than closing school and not seeing a flake.
It is a weekend, when shopping trips and party plans were changed at the last minute. Today was a day that may have kept the kids in the house, when parents thought they would get a break. But as a parent and a forecaster, I feel it from both sides.
It is not just a wrong forecast, and I get to go back to work on Monday without a second thought. It is the pride that I have making my own forecasts and having you, the viewer, my friends, and my family trust me. It is not forgotten, it is loud and clear. It doesn't change the fact that we still have better than 90% accuracy, but this one miss is what you will remember until the next storm.
It is my job (and I speak for all forecasters in all offices, public and private) to earn your trust and keep your trust. Please know that I care. Our entire weather and news team cares. Whether it was a pleasant surprise or a waste of a day... it may not amount to a hill of beans, I am truly sorry.
